Stock Research Archive

Visa has rallied ~27% since our April bull call ($300.8 → $381.6), vindicating the prior thesis but exhausting the easy upside. The stock now sits within 1% of its 52-week high at ~27x forward earnings (above its own historical discount zone), while the fundamental picture shows deceleration: Q3 FY2...

Mastercard is executing exceptionally well — Q2 2026 EPS of $5.04 beat consensus by 5.7%, net revenue grew 14%, and Value-Added Services (23% growth, now 41% of revenue) is transforming the company from a pure toll-collector into a data/AI/stablecoin infrastructure business. The stock's flat-to-down...

My bear thesis from February and April 2026 has now been fully validated — and then some. Walmart has fallen from $131 to $103, a 21% decline, after the Q2 FY27 report delivered the company's biggest miss in years: U.S. comp sales growth of just 2.6% (vs. 4.6% a year ago, slowest since 2020), Q3 EPS...

Micron has transformed from a cyclical commodity memory maker into what is effectively a contracted AI infrastructure supplier. Q3 FY26 revenue of $41.5B (up ~4x YoY), net income of $28.2B, record 84.9% gross margins, and Q4 guidance of ~$50B revenue at 86% gross margin are numbers no memory company...

Broadcom has fallen 25% from its June high of $495 to $368.79, yet the fundamental trajectory has accelerated, not deteriorated. AI semiconductor revenue hit $10.8B in fiscal Q2 2026 (+143% YoY), Q3 AI revenue is guided to ~$16B, and management reaffirmed its FY2027 target of $100B+ in AI chip reven...

SpaceX is an extraordinary business wrapped in an indefensible valuation. The company grew revenue 92% YoY to roughly $18.7B annualized, Starlink is adding 500k+ subscribers monthly with 86% EBITDA growth, and the launch business remains a global monopoly. But at $1.87T market cap, the stock trades ...

Amazon has fundamentally re-rated since our April neutral call. Q2 2026 was a blowout: revenue of $200.61B beat estimates, adjusted EPS of $1.97 crushed the $1.82 consensus, and AWS grew 37% YoY — its fastest growth since 2021 and a sharp acceleration from 28% in Q1 and 24% in Q4 2025. Andy Jassy's ...

My April bull call has largely played out: MSFT rallied from $429 to $513 (+20%) after Q4 FY2026 results decisively refuted the bear thesis. Microsoft beat on both lines ($90.01B revenue vs $87.62B expected; $4.74 EPS vs $4.24), Azure re-accelerated rather than decelerated, capex plans for FY2026 we...

Alphabet remains one of the best-run businesses in the market — Q2 2026 revenue of ~$119.8B grew 24% YoY with operating income up 34%, and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth with 35.6% margins. But the investment equation has changed: management raised 2026 capex guidance to $195-205B (with Gold...

Apple has rallied ~18% since our April review ($270.71 → $319.70), driven by a blowout fiscal Q3: revenue of $109.4B (+16.4%), iPhone +22%, Mac +29%, EPS $1.91-2.02 beating estimates, and record Services revenue. Yet the market's reaction was telling — the stock shed $426B in market cap in two days ...

Nvidia just delivered one of the most extraordinary quarters in corporate history — $96.2B revenue (+106% YoY), $89B data center revenue (+117%), 75% gross margins, and guidance of $108B for Q3. Management then stunned the Street by guiding fiscal 2028 growth to ~70%, implying ~$673B in revenue. Yet...

Credo Technology is a high-conviction AI infrastructure play executing exceptionally well, but trading near 52-week highs with material concentration risk. Q3 FY26 results were extraordinary — $407M revenue (+201.5% YoY, +52% QoQ), 68.6% non-GAAP gross margin, 49.6% non-GAAP operating margin, and $1...

GE Vernova has been one of the most spectacular industrial re-ratings of the past two years, with the stock up ~133% from its 52-week low and trading at roughly 11.7% below its all-time high of $1,181. The thesis is well-known and now well-priced: gas turbine backlogs sold out through 2030, electrif...

Vertiv is the purest 'pick-and-shovels' beneficiary of the AI data center buildout, delivering exceptional results — Q1 2026 revenue +30% YoY, adjusted EPS +83%, adjusted operating margin expanding 430bps to 20.8%, and a backlog of ~$15B that more than doubled YoY. Management raised 2026 guidance ag...

Super Micro presents a genuinely conflicted setup. On one hand, the business is executing on a once-in-a-generation AI infrastructure cycle: Q3 FY26 revenue of $10.2B (+123% YoY), FY26 guidance raised to ~$40B, and Q4 outlook of $11.0–12.5B beat consensus. At $20B market cap, the stock trades at ~0....

Twenty One Capital (XXI) is a pure-play Bitcoin treasury vehicle holding ~43,514 BTC, making it the third-largest corporate Bitcoin holder behind Strategy (MSTR) and Marathon. At $7.64 with ~353M shares outstanding, the implied market cap of $2.70B sits materially below the gross asset value of its ...

Micron has delivered one of the most extraordinary runs in semiconductor history, with shares up 738% from the 52-week low and the company now sporting an $825B market cap — larger than the entire historical peak market cap of the global memory industry combined. Q2 FY26 results were spectacular: re...

Sanmina has been transformed by the ZT Systems acquisition, with cloud/AI infrastructure now comprising 62% of sales and Q2 FY26 revenue surging 102% YoY to $4.01B. The stock has rallied ~187% from its 52-week low to trade within 8% of its all-time high, pricing in significant AI-driven manufacturin...

Lam Research is firing on all cylinders at a critical inflection point in the WFE (wafer fabrication equipment) cycle. Management raised the 2026 WFE market outlook to $140B (up from $135B and ~28% above 2025), Q3 FY26 delivered record revenue of $5.84B (+24% YoY) with EPS beating consensus by 8%, a...

AppLovin presents a rare combination of hyper-growth and elite profitability: 2025 revenue grew 70% to $5.48B, adjusted EBITDA margins hit 82-84%, and free cash flow reached $3.95B. Yet the stock has been cut nearly 40% from its 52-week high of $745 amid SEC scrutiny over data-privacy practices, sho...