Bitcoin Macro Correlation Tracker

See whether BTC is currently behaving more like a liquidity trade, an equity beta trade, or a gold-like macro hedge. Correlations are ranked by trailing monthly return closeness, then visualized as monthly return overlays.

Current Ranking

01S&P 500 / SPY Proxy

positive correlation · 12 monthly obs

0.46

02Gold / PAXG Proxy

weak relationship · 12 monthly obs

0.15

03Liquidity Proxy / US M2

weak relationship · 11 monthly obs

-0.09

BTC is currently tracking S&P 500 / SPY Proxy most closely by absolute trailing correlation.

Bitcoin vs Liquidity Proxy / US M2

Monthly returns on the same percentage scale.

-0.09

weak corr · 11 obs

BTCUS M2

Bitcoin vs S&P 500 / SPY Proxy

Monthly returns on the same percentage scale.

0.46

positive corr · 12 obs

BTCS&P 500

Bitcoin vs Gold / PAXG Proxy

Monthly returns on the same percentage scale.

0.15

weak corr · 12 obs

BTCGold

Methodology: Correlations use trailing 12 monthly log returns. Charts show monthly return percentages over the shared 12-month window. The liquidity leg now uses FRED US M2 as the public liquidity proxy because free global M2 aggregates are stale or inconsistent across major regions. The equity leg uses FRED S&P 500 data as an SPY proxy, and the gold leg uses CoinGecko PAXG data as a public gold-price proxy.